🔗 Share this article

Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|