War-torn Myanmar Votes in Broadly Condemned 'Sham' Election.

Polling materials in Myanmar
The country's military is conducting a phased election over the coming weeks.

The nation is holding an election in a vote broadly rejected as a farce, with major political parties dissolved, numerous figures jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The military government is conducting a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a coup, which ignited massive protests and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the election under a new law which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a film promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to boycott the polls.

The army has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Results are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it difficult to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the junta can adjust tactics if the results in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative stated at a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".

Patricia Gray
Patricia Gray

Elara is a seasoned betting analyst with over a decade of experience in sports gambling and odds forecasting.